By Charlie Green
When people think about Stanford football, they might think about a lot of the same qualities as those of the Hawkeyes.
The program produces NFL-caliber offensive lineman, likes to build on a strong running game, and this to set a physical tone on both offense and defense.
And for a group forced to find strength in development rather than rely on elite recruiting, setting a workmanlike attitude in the off-season is something Stanford would likely attribute to making its third Rose Bowl in the past four seasons.
But something is different about this Stanford team. It has its Heisman runner-up; Christian McCaffrey joins the ranks of Andrew Luck (twice) and Toby Gerhart before him. The offensive line is there, as is the quarterback and the running game.
Its defense might actually be the Achilles’ heel of the Cardinal team that will take the field in Pasadena, California, on New Year’s Day.
Let’s take a look at Stanford’s Rose Bowl teams in the recent past. In 2012, it ranked 20th nationally in total defense, surrendering 336.2 yards per game. The following season it finished the season ranked 16th after giving up 343.5 yards per game.
Stanford went 1-1 in those games.
Last season, because the Rose Bowl was part of the College Football Playoff, the team missed out on the “Granddaddy of them All.” It finished third in America in total defense, though, allowing just 282.4 yards per outing.
Now, just one year later, the Cardinal rank 50th in yards allowed per game, giving up an average of 374.5 yards — nearly 100 more than last season.
Approximately 145 of that average comes on the ground, while 227.6 comes via the pass. Stanford has given up 30 or more points four times this season. Iowa has done so once.
To be fair, Stanford has seen a lot of talented quarterbacks this year, including Cody Kessler, Vernon Adams, Jared Goff, Josh Rosen, and Luke Falk.
But Iowa still might have a keen advantage against the Cardinal defensive front. The interior trio of Austin Blythe, Jordan Walsh, and Sean Welsh is going to be a hell of an order for Stanford’s undersized defensive line to deal with.
However, the Cardinal might have the best linebacker on the field in senior Blake Martinez, who ranks ninth in America in tackles. Outside of him, Iowa might have a huge edge against the front seven.
Look for the Hawks to do what they always try to do in building on the run. Quarterback C.J. Beathard will have to make plays and take shots downfield to keep them from committing too much toward the line of scrimmage, but offensive coordinator Greg Davis won’t be shy about pounding the ball in between the tackles.
What the Hawkeyes could look to do is exactly what Michigan State did to them in the Big Ten Championship: control the clock and wear down the opposing defense by the late stages of the game.
On paper it looks like Iowa can do that, based on its arsenal of running backs and an offensive line that likes to get downhill and smash people.
For Iowa, it’s a question of converting on third down and keeping drives alive. That facet of the game could signify the line between a Rose Bowl victory or consecutive losses to end a historic 2015 season.
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