Even with the Hawkeyes in the top 10, voters and media likely won’t be sold until the Hawks prove themselves against a quality opponent — but they aren’t concerned.
By Charlie Green | [email protected]
In the past month, No. 10 Iowa has ascended from unranked to one of the nation’s highest-ranked teams.
Iowa football players say they don’t place a lot of value in rankings, and they attempt not to think about too much more than the opponent directly in front of them — in this week’s case, 2-5 Maryland.
After grinding through the front end of its schedule undefeated, albeit not unscathed injury-wise, Iowa’s biggest obstacle from here on out may not be any single opponent.
Strength of schedule will be the constant theme if coach Kirk Ferentz and Company keep this winning streak going.
“For the strength of schedule, you can only control that to a certain extent,” linebacker Cole Fisher said. “We’re doing what we can with what we we’re given.”
But is that ultimately enough? That question figures to be asked and explored more and more in the coming weeks.
Not only do the team’s remaining opponents share a combined conference record of 2-15, but the Hawkeyes already have a firm grip on the Big Ten West. One couldn’t be blamed to assume this team could play in the Big Ten Championship game Dec. 5 against the toughest competition it will face all year.
And as long as the Hawks keep adding to the win column and maintaining their goose egg in the loss — which many deem possible given its remaining schedule — it will continue to ascend in the polls.
“If other unbeatens lose — and they will, because some of them play each other — Iowa will rise like helium,” Yahoo Sports’ Pat Forde said. “Why? Because poll voters are fixated more on record than on strength of schedule.”
Of the teams in front of the Hawkeyes, according to the Associated Press, every one except No. 3 Clemson plays someone else in the top 10 in the next month.
No. 4 LSU will play No. 8 Alabama on Nov. 7. No. 1 Ohio State will take on No. 6 Michigan State on Nov. 21.
Fifth-ranked TCU will play second-ranked Baylor on Nov. 27, and No. 9 Notre Dame will battle No. 8 Stanford the following day.
November will be a huge month in the distinction between college football’s good and its great. Although it’s not certain a loss would move any one of these teams out of the top 10, it is quite possible Iowa finds itself in the AP’s top five by the end of the regular season.
But because of the abundance of programs in the sport and the relatively few opponents each team plays, basing a ranking primarily on its record has flaws. Of the nine squads ranked ahead of the Hawks, they only have the opportunity to see one of them in action before a bowl game — which would probably be either Michigan State or Ohio State in a conference-title bout.
Football is a game of matchups and variables, and the AP rankings tend to oversimplify what many believe should be a more complicated and well-thought-out process.
It leaves room for the human error the Bowl Championship Series’ computer-driven rankings were designed to eliminate. The College Football Playoff Committee is the latest attempt to select the very best teams in the country, weighing carefully a variety of factors.
The committee — comprising 13 members from Barry Alvarez to Condoleezza Rice — places a high value on conference championships, head-to-head competition, comparative outcome of common opponents, and perhaps most of all: strength of schedule.
When its first poll is released next week, the public will get a first peek at what the “experts” think of the Hawkeyes, a possible indication of how much the outlook of their schedule could hold them back.
“That’s the biggest obstacle,” Forde said. “That and the absence of much domination until the Northwestern game. I’d say the schedule to date has been mediocre, but it will get worse over the final five games.”
It’s possible the overall assessment of Iowa’s opponents could change by season’s end. No. 23 Pittsburgh is undefeated aside from its last-second loss at Kinnick on Sept. 19. The Panthers’ continued rise would give committee members a legitimate opponent to point to, especially if they earn a spot in the ACC Championship and play a competitive game or even beat, say, Clemson.
Hey, anything can happen.
Wisconsin and Northwestern, Iowa’s other premier wins on the year, also received votes in this week’s AP poll, though the Wildcats have a lot to prove after their considerable hiccup, which sounded more like a belch.
But, Forde said, even if those teams finish strong, it might not matter much.
“It would definitely help if Pittsburgh wins its division and — dare to dream — wins the ACC title game,” Forde said. “Northwestern and Wisconsin somewhat don’t matter, because it’s a zero-sum game from here on out: They’d simply be beating other Big Ten teams.”
That’s where things get tricky — when the committee looks past the record of opponents into the kind of teams they have defeated, lost to, and whom their opponents have played as well.
The Hawks might not be undefeated if they didn’t play in the Big Ten West — no one can say for sure. But what is clear is that the division is viewed as one of the weakest groupings in college football.
The Sagarin ratings, a system designed to account for strength of schedule, ranks Iowa at No. 14 in the country with the 35th toughest schedule to date. As the season unfolds, the schedule ranking will likely drop.
They also put the West as the eighth-best conference/division in the country. In terms of the Power-5, only the ACC Atlantic — of which the Panthers are members — rates lower. The Big Ten East ranks just above it at seventh, and the SEC West stands at No. 1.
Even the AP rankings reflect that to some extent at this point. It doesn’t take advanced metrics or intense analysis to figure it out. The Big Ten is soft relative to other Power-5 conferences, particularly on Iowa’s side of the league.
Be as it may, it’s not something the Hawks can afford to concern themselves with.
“I don’t really think about it that much because I don’t make the schedule,” guard Jordan Walsh said. “We just go out there, play each game we can, and try to win each game.”
Again, it’s no given that Iowa runs the table on the rest of its schedule, even as it has done so against the seemingly “tough” part. Indiana is a potential trap game, and recent struggles against Nebraska and Minnesota certainly linger heavily in the memories of the Hawkeye faithful.
In the Ferentz’s mind, there’s far too much football left to even dream of playoffs, conference titles, or even finishing at the top of the West.
“Right now, we still have 42 percent of our season left and close to 63 percent of our Big Ten season left in terms of scheduling,” Ferentz said. “… As much as everybody wants to think they know what’s going to happen or what should happen, football is pretty unpredictable.”
But Iowa can lose one game, possibly two, and still earn a berth in the conference title game. A win there would be undeniably huge regardless of the opponent, but if the Hawkeyes go into it with a loss, it still might not be enough to impress voters of the committee.
In all likelihood, it will require a 13-0 campaign for the Hawks to have a real shot at the playoff. If the team’s record remains unblemished as the weeks go by, more and more members of the national media will echo this sentiment — especially with what would be an inevitable climb in the AP rankings.
“I suppose what you can say about the strength of schedule is if you finish out the season and win every one,” Fisher said. “I guess they can’t really say much if you just keep winning.”
The skepticism, however unfortunate for the Hawks, is legitimate. Iowa’s defense and running game have made it one of the surprise teams of the season. But as of now, it’s not a team that meets the criteria of what is considered elite.
Time will tell if that changes. There’s only so much the Hawkeyes can do to influence voting other than win games.
Cracking the top 10 might not mean much, but it could be a start.
“It’s a pretty crazy concept, honestly; it’s definitely not something I would’ve predicted at the beginning of the season,” linebackerCole Fisher said. “It’s just one of those things where you can’t get too wrapped up in it; there’s still a lot of season left to go.”
[Editor’s note: This week’s cover story was written before Pittsburgh lost Thursday night.]
